News summary
In the past five years, PX has been highly positively correlated with raw material MX and downstream PTA. in 2024luckyhippocasinonodepositbonus, the price difference between PX and MX and PTA has a narrowing trend. The expansion of PTA has led to a decrease in the correlation coefficient between its price and PX. PX supply and demand pattern is expected to be tightly balanced in the second half of the yearluckyhippocasinonodepositbonus, has a supporting effect on prices.
Newsletter text
[Market dynamics: PX and MX prices are closely related, and price spreads fluctuate are expected] Driven by US-Asia arbitrage space, the upstream link has taken the lead in profit distribution, prompting PX prices to fluctuate. Although PX maintains a highly positive correlation with the direct raw material MX, the price difference between the two shows a narrowing trend in 2024. This phenomenon was particularly significant in the abnormal fluctuations between May and July 2022, when MX prices overtook PX, causing the spread to narrow significantly. [Profit prospects: PTA's bargaining power has been improved, and cash flow in the PX link has improved] Since 2020, the PTA factory has improved its bargaining power through the investment and construction of supporting raw materials for large-scale refining and chemical projects. The cash flow from the PX link has been diverted downstream of the industrial chain, making PTA and polyester products profitable has been significantly improved. However, the self-adjustment of the PTA supply and demand pattern since 2023 has led to a gradual decline in the correlation coefficient between PX and PTA prices. [Industrial chain impact: Demand transmission effect is enhanced under the full-chain model] Under the background of integrated catalytic reforming units dominated by crude oil as raw material, PX production is less affected by changes in oil adjustment demand, while the immediate demand of downstream PTA has an increasingly significant impact on PX prices. Since the PTA industry entered the capacity expansion cycle in 2023, the oversupply situation has intensified, and PTA manufacturers 'enthusiasm for starting construction has declined, which is reflected in the high PX inventories and the decline in PX prices in Asia. [Forecast Analysis: Outlook for PX Supply and Demand Pattern in the Second Half of the Year] It is expected that the impact of MX on PX prices in the second half of the year will weaken with the end of the peak oil adjustment season. At the same time, the impact of PTA demand on PX prices will continue to deepen. Although the demand for oil regulation is expected to weaken, PTA's immediate demand for PX still exists. In addition, after the centralized maintenance of Asian PX units in the second quarter, planned maintenance in the second half of the year may cause supply levels to stabilize and increase. It is expected that the PX supply and demand pattern may show tight balance, supporting prices.
